Low-cost index funds

ETF Name Symbol Percent of Portfolio Expense Ratio Morningstar Rating
iShares Gold Trust
Gold
IAU 15% 0.25%  N/A 
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
International Small-Cap, Developed Nations index
SCZ  15% 0.39%  4 star 
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
U.S. Long-term Treasury Bond index
TLT  30% 0.15%   4 star 
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Blend
U.S. Stock Market, Small-Cap600 index
IJR 10% 0.07%  5 star 
iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap Blend
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Cap400 index
IJH 15% 0.07%  5 star 
Vanguard Total Stock Market
U.S. Stock Market, Total index
VTI 15% 0.04%  4 star 
Total weighted annual expense ratio    0.16%   

Overall asset class allocation

Asset Class Percent of Portfolio
Stocks 55%
Bonds 30%
Gold 15%
Cash 0%

 

Description
The Juicy Portfolio is a Permanent Portfolio variant with no cashIts a passive portfolioNo market timing.  Buy and hold.  Rebalance yearly.   Its intended for USA investors.  Since there's no cash in the portfolio its intended for those who already have an adequate cash emergency fund (12 months living expenses).  The non-correlated asset classes (Stocks, Long-Term Treasury Bonds, Gold) are based on the Permanent Portfolio concept and provide superior protection for all economic conditions.  In total, the 6 funds of the Juicy Portfolio create a simple, diversified, all-weather investment approach.

Objective
Provide strong long-term capital appreciation with low volatility.

Performance
Starting from 1971 it has returned a 10.54% Compound Annual Growth Rate (Annualized Return).  A solid track record of strong growth with low volatility. The spreadsheet data below shows how each asset performed yearly, going back to 1971 when the US went off the Gold Standard

15% 15% 30% 10% 15% 15% 100% starting balance
Year Gold (IAU) Int'SmallCap(SCZ)   LT Bonds (TLT) SmallCap (IJR) MidCap (IJH) TotalStock (VTI) Yearly Returns % $10,000.00
1971 14.65 29.59 9.79 14.31 14.31 14.31 15.30 $11,529.70
1972 48.66 63.90 5.43 4.16 8.86 18.78 18.94 $13,713.71
1973 71.24 -13.61 -1.36 -31.06 -26.66 -14.66 -1.26 $13,540.37
1974 72.02 -28.47 4.13 -10.39 -25.36 -26.47 -0.25 $13,507.13
1975 -27.62 49.61 8.92 26.16 57.05 37.20 20.60 $16,288.92
1976 -4.48 11.40 16.50 21.62 40.09 23.84 16.41 $18,962.02
1977 22.15 73.72 -0.96 6.51 3.77 -7.84 5.78 $20,058.78
1978 36.47 65.21 -1.46 6.83 10.66 5.87 13.09 $22,684.07
1979 126.65 -0.78 -1.46 34.39 32.21 18.05 30.25 $29,546.01
1980 14.73 35.29 -4.25 44.01 32.21 31.92 18.34 $34,965.34
1981 -32.87 0.10 1.64 -2.83 2.18 -5.21 -5.52 $33,035.95
1982 14.49 0.04 40.04 46.42 23.03 20.97 25.15 $41,343.99
1983 -16.64 35.94 0.44 18.15 26.08 21.29 10.11 $45,523.87
1984 -19.52 11.56 15.20 -25.17 1.18 6.21 1.33 $46,129.57
1985 5.26 67.17 30.66 23.07 35.59 31.23 30.74 $60,310.26
1986 20.82 59.25 24.18 0.20 16.21 18.06 25.95 $75,962.88
1987 21.72 40.46 -2.92 -6.99 -2.04 4.71 5.78 $80,352.01
1988 -15.59 25.82 9.15 24.63 20.87 16.22 12.67 $90,535.43
1989 -3.23 30.62 17.93 10.55 35.55 31.36 17.57 $106,439.78
1990 -1.86 -17.85 5.78 -18.13 -5.12 -3.32 -5.14 $100,967.18
1991 -10.43 5.80 17.43 45.26 51.10 30.22 22.21 $123,389.97
1992 -6.12 -20.48 7.41 18.20 11.91 7.42 4.20 $128,571.12
1993 17.21 34.22 16.78 18.70 13.95 10.62 18.06 $151,784.64
1994 -2.56 14.70 -7.04 -0.51 -3.58 -0.17 -1.94 $148,836.22
1995 0.58 0.99 30.09 28.74 30.95 35.79 22.17 $181,837.67
1996 -4.97 2.07 -1.26 18.12 19.20 20.96 6.86 $194,302.65
1997 -21.72 -23.17 13.90 24.59 32.25 30.99 9.45 $212,662.30
1998 -1.22 8.74 13.05 -2.61 19.12 23.26 10.62 $235,243.85
1999 0.45 22.41 -8.66 23.13 15.52 23.81 8.54 $255,328.97
2000 -5.82 -4.86 19.72 -2.67 18.39 -10.57 5.49 $269,338.87
2001 0.44 -9.97 4.31 3.10 -0.37 -10.97 -0.72 $267,398.28
2002 25.96 -7.44 16.67 -20.02 -14.45 -20.96 2.45 $273,949.54
2003 19.12 62.14 1.76 45.63 34.33 31.35 27.78 $350,060.94
2004 4.48 31.27 8.55 22.41 15.28 12.79 14.91 $402,249.78
2005 18.04 26.65 8.56 7.59 12.57 6.31 12.35 $451,925.62
2006 22.27 19.67 0.84 14.94 10.14 15.69 13.22 $511,667.92
2007 30.36 1.79 10.23 -0.40 7.30 5.37 9.93 $562,456.08
2008 5.11 -48.55 33.92 -31.47 -36.02 -36.98 -10.44 $503,752.54
2009 23.90 42.85 -21.80 25.80 37.48 28.89 16.01 $584,393.25
2010 29.46 21.50 9.05 26.60 26.72 17.42 19.64 $699,168.08
2011 9.57 -15.14 33.96 0.79 -2.18 0.97 9.25 $763,841.13
2012 6.89 21.28 2.63 16.29 17.79 16.45 11.78 $853,817.79
2013 -28.25 28.60 -13.37 41.32 33.46 33.45 10.21 $940,992.59
2014 -2.05 -6.07 27.30 5.85 9.71 12.54 10.89 $1,043,509.03
2015 -10.58 9.10 -1.79 -2.07 -2.33 0.36 -1.26 $1,030,345.16
2016 8.31 2.36 1.18 26.61 20.73 12.83 9.69 $1,130,185.61
2017 12.91 32.73 8.95 13.15 16.26 21.21 16.47 $1,316,287.62
2018 -1.76 -17.48 -1.61 -8.49 -11.18 -5.21 -6.68 $1,228,405.68
CAGR             10.54  

 

Key statistics: 1971-2018
Annualized Total Return 10.54%
Best Yearly Gain (1985) 30.74%
Worst Yearly Loss (2008) -10.44%

Annualized Returns per decade:

   1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
    18.34 -5.14 5.49 19.64
  15.30 -5.52 22.21 -0.72 9.25
  18.94 25.15 4.20 2.45 11.78
  -1.26 10.11 18.06 27.78 10.21
  -0.25 1.33 -1.94 14.91 10.89
  20.60 30.74 22.17 12.35 -1.26
16.41 25.95 6.86 13.22 9.69
  5.78 5.78 9.45 9.93 16.47
  13.09 12.67 10.62 -10.44 -6.68
  30.25 17.57 8.54 16.01  
CAGR 12.79 13.67 9.14 8.63 8.60

 

Past 30 years (1989 - 2018): Past 25 years (1994 - 2018): Past 20 years (1999 - 2018): Past 15 years (2004 - 2018):

1989 17.57
1990 -5.14
1991 22.21
1992 4.20
1993 18.06
1994 -1.94
1995 22.17
1996 6.86
1997 9.45
1998 10.62
1999 8.54
2000 5.49
2001 -0.72
2002 2.45
2003 27.78
2004 14.91
2005 12.35
2006 13.22
2007 9.93
2008 -10.44
2009 16.01
2010 19.64
2011 9.25
2012 11.78
2013 10.21
2014 10.89
2015 -1.26
2016 9.69
2017 16.47
2018 -6.68
CAGR 9.08


1994 -1.94
1995 22.17
1996 6.86
1997 9.45
1998 10.62
1999 8.54
2000 5.49
2001 -0.72
2002 2.45
2003 27.78
2004 14.91
2005 12.35
2006 13.22
2007 9.93
2008 -10.44
2009 16.01
2010 19.64
2011 9.25
2012 11.78
2013 10.21
2014 10.89
2015 -1.26
2016 9.69
2017 16.47
2018 -6.68
CAGR 8.72


1999 8.54
2000 5.49
2001 -0.72
2002 2.45
2003 27.78
2004 14.91
2005 12.35
2006 13.22
2007 9.93
2008 -10.44
2009 16.01
2010 19.64
2011 9.25
2012 11.78
2013 10.21
2014 10.89
2015 -1.26
2016 9.69
2017 16.47
2018 -6.68
CAGR 8.62



2004 14.91
2005 12.35
2006 13.22
2007 9.93
2008 -10.44
2009 16.01
2010 19.64
2011 9.25
2012 11.78
2013 10.21
2014 10.89
2015 -1.26
2016 9.69
2017 16.47
2018 -6.68
CAGR 8.73

 

Past 10 years (2009 - 2018), 9.33% Annualized Return:
 
 
Past 5 years (2014 - 2018), 5.48% Annualized Return:
 
 

The linear graph below shows the growth rate of $10,000 starting in 1971.

  

Data Sources
The yearly returns of the 6 funds were used as far back as possible.  Prior to that, similar mutual fund data was used to backtest to 1971.  Below are the URLs of all the source data.

Total Stock Market Index  
2004-present VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=VTI&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1993-2003 VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VTSMX+Performance 
1977-2002 VFINX Vangaurd 500 Index http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VFINX+Performance
1971-1976 S&P500 Total annual returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
Small-Cap Index  
2004-present IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IJR&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1974-2003 NAESX Vanguard Small Cap Index http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=NAESX 
1972-1973 Small-Cap Blend - NAESX from Simba backtesting spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 
1971 S&P500 Total annual returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
   
Mid-Cap Index  
2004-present IJH iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IJH&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1999-2003 VMCIX Vanguard Mid Cap Index http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VMCIX
1983-1998 S&P Mid-Cap Index http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/US_mid_cap_index_returns
1972-1982 Mid-Cap Blend - VIMSX from Simba backtesting spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 
1971 S&P500 Total annual returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
   
International Small-Cap Index  
2008-present SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=SCZ&region=usa&culture=en-USA
1995-2007 DFA International Small Cap Value I  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=DISVX
1971-1994 EAFE annual returns http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/MSCI_EAFE_index
   
Long-Term Bond Index  
2003-present TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=TLT&region=usa&culture=en-USA
1987-2002 VUSTX Vanguard Long-Term Treasury http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VUSTX 
1972-1986 Long Term Govt Bond - VUSTX from Simba backtesting spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 
1971 Long Term Govt Bond - 10-year T.Bond http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html 
   
Gold  
2006-present IAU iShares Gold Trust http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IAU&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
2005 GLD Gold Shares http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=GLD 
1972-2004 Gold from Simba backtesting spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 
1971 Gold Price http://onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp 
   
Benchmarks  
1971-1976 S&P500 Total annual returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
1977-present VFINX Vanguard S&P500 Index http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VFINX
1971-present VWELX Vanguard Wellington 60/40 balanced fund http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VWELX
1971-present VWINX Vanguard Wellesley 40/60 balanced fund http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VWINX
1971-present Permanent Portfolio = 25% SHY, 25% IAU, 25% VTI, 25% TLT
   

Other historical charts...

20 year performance of the major asset classes (Stocks, Long-Term Treasury Bonds, Gold)

 

 

20 year performance of the individual ETFs

 

Recommended Reading
The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy 
Permanent Portfolio Wiki 
The Theory Behind The Golden Butterfly
This Is Why You Are Still Diversifying Wrong
How Small-Cap International Stocks Help Your Portfolio In Big Ways
The Dividend Income Illusion
StockCharts.com - Historical Chart Gallery of Market Indexes 
Vangaurd Portfolio Allocation Models - Historical Returns  
Forgetful Investors Performed The Best  
 

Disclaimer
Do your own research.  The information on this website is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security.  It's strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of investment advice.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

-Ozzy


Webpage last updated January 02, 2019
Email: webmaster@tightwadweb.com