Low-cost index funds

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) Symbol Percent of Portfolio Expense Ratio Morningstar Rating
iShares Gold Trust
Gold		 IAU 15% 0.25% N/A
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
International Small-Cap, Developed Nations index		 SCZ  10% 0.40% 4 star
iShares 20+ Year U.S.Treasury Bond
U.S. Long-term Treasury Bond index		 TLT  15% 0.15%  4 star
PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Bond
U.S. Long-term TIPS Bond index		 LTPZ 15% 0.20% 5 star
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor
U.S. Stock Market, stocks with momentum index		 MTUM 10% 0.15% 3 star
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Blend
U.S. Stock Market, Small-Cap 600 index		 IJR 10% 0.06% 5 star
iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap Blend
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Cap 400 index		 IJH 10% 0.05% 5 star
Vanguard Total Stock Market
U.S. Stock Market, Total index		 VTI 15% 0.03% 4 star
Total weighted annual expense ratio    0.16%   

Overall asset class allocation

Asset Class Percent of Portfolio
Stocks 55%
Bonds 30%
Gold 15%
Cash 0%

 

Description
Inspired by the Permanent Portfolio, the Juicy Portfolio is a passive portfolio with no cash.  No market timing.  Buy and hold.  Rebalance yearly.  Its intended for USA investors.  Since there's no cash in the portfolio, its intended for those who already have an adequate cash emergency fund (12 months living expenses).  The non-correlated asset classes (Stocks, Long-Term Bonds, Gold) are based on the Permanent Portfolio concept and provide superior protection for all economic conditions.  In total, the 8 funds of the Juicy Portfolio create a simple, diversified, all-weather investment approach.

Objective
Provide strong long-term capital appreciation with low volatility.

Performance
Starting from 1971 it has returned a ~10% Compound Annual Growth Rate (Annualized Return).  A solid track record of strong growth with low volatility. The spreadsheet data below shows how each asset performed yearly, going back to 1971 when the US went off the Gold Standard. 

 

10% 15% 15% 10% 15% 10% 10% 15% 100.00% starting balance
Year Momentum (MTUM) LT TIPS (LTPZ) Gold (IAU) International (SCZ) LT Treasuries (TLT) Small-Cap (IJR) Mid-Cap (IJH) Total Stock (VTI) Yearly Returns % $10,000.00
1971     14.65 29.59 9.79 15.81 14.31 14.31 14.68 $11,468.30
1972     49.02 36.35 5.43 14.14 8.02 18.78 19.53 $13,707.83
1973     72.96 -14.92 -1.36 -14.96 -24.20 -14.66 1.46 $13,908.38
1974     66.15 -23.16 4.13 -10.39 -26.34 -26.47 -1.45 $13,707.40
1975     -24.80 35.39 8.92 26.16 48.69 37.20 19.28 $16,350.19
1976     -4.10 2.54 16.50 21.62 36.67 23.84 16.38 $19,028.02
1977     22.64 18.06 -0.96 6.51 1.30 -7.84 3.74 $19,738.72
1978 37.01 32.62 -1.46 6.83 8.97 5.87 11.42 $21,993.47
1979     126.55 4.75 -1.46 34.39 31.48 18.05 30.12 $28,617.68
1980     15.19 22.58 -4.25 44.01 30.76 31.92 18.72 $33,974.48
1981     -32.60 -2.28 1.64 -2.83 4.10 -5.21 -5.80 $32,003.45
1982     14.94 -1.86 40.04 46.42 25.21 20.97 26.47 $40,475.57
1983     -16.31 23.69 0.44 18.15 27.11 21.29 9.90 $44,483.86
1984     -19.38 7.38 15.20 -25.17 -1.74 6.21 1.25 $45,041.02
1985     6.00 56.16 30.66 23.07 32.79 31.23 29.11 $58,151.34
1986     18.96 69.44 24.18 0.20 17.12 18.06 23.29 $71,694.20
1987     24.53 24.63 -2.92 -6.99 0.84 4.71 5.83 $75,873.26
1988     -15.26 28.27 9.15 24.63 19.44 16.22 11.75 $84,784.57
1989     -2.84 10.54 17.93 10.55 26.00 31.36 17.50 $99,623.57
1990     -3.11 -23.45 5.78 -18.13 -10.73 -3.32 -4.79 $94,848.11
1991     -8.56 12.13 17.43 45.26 40.44 30.22 21.28 $115,034.64
1992     -5.73 -12.17 7.41 18.20 15.19 7.42 5.34 $121,178.06
1993     17.68 32.56 16.79 18.70 16.20 10.62 17.09 $141,887.39
1994     -2.17 7.78 -7.04 -0.51 -1.72 -0.17 -1.93 $139,156.06
1995     0.98 1.16 30.09 28.74 33.22 35.79 24.43 $173,156.76
1996     -4.59 0.95 -1.26 18.12 18.97 20.96 7.98 $186,970.34
1997     -21.41 -22.72 13.90 24.59 25.66 30.99 11.46 $208,395.27
1998     -0.83 5.27 13.05 -2.61 9.90 23.26 10.86 $231,030.12
1999     0.85 19.04 -8.66 23.13 15.32 23.81 9.23 $252,356.51
2000 -5.44 -3.08 19.72 -2.67 18.10 -10.57 3.69 $261,674.78
2001     0.75 -4.59 4.31 6.43 -1.24 -10.97 -1.28 $258,333.19
2002 25.57 5.79 16.67 -14.31 -14.21 -20.47 1.45 $262,068.69
2003     19.89 66.48 1.62 38.50 35.21 30.75 25.18 $328,047.10
2004     4.65 34.80 8.71 22.41 16.09 12.79 13.84 $373,442.26
2005     17.76 23.23 8.61 7.53 12.88 6.31 11.19 $415,224.85
2006     22.27 28.39 0.71 15.09 9.67 15.69 12.79 $468,336.26
2007     30.36 2.95 10.29 -0.47 7.30 5.37 9.96 $514,989.57
2008     5.11 -48.55 33.93 -31.52 -36.18 -36.98 -9.92 $463,879.43
2009     23.90 42.85 -21.80 25.88 37.81 28.89 14.92 $533,097.20
2010   8.67 29.46 21.50 9.05 26.60 26.72 17.42 18.91 $633,927.21
2011   25.10 9.57 -15.14 33.93 0.79 -2.18 0.97 8.88 $690,245.30
2012   11.60 6.89 21.28 2.63 16.29 17.79 16.45 12.82 $778,710.59
2013   -19.21 -28.25 28.60 -13.37 41.32 33.46 33.45 9.58 $853,279.91
2014 14.62 19.68 -2.05 -6.07 27.30 5.85 9.71 12.54 11.03 $947,409.49
2015 8.93 -8.83 -10.58 9.10 -1.79 -2.07 -2.33 0.36 -1.76 $930,706.66
2016 5.00 9.16 8.31 2.63 1.18 26.61 20.73 12.83 10.22 $1,025,815.57
2017 37.50 9.06 12.91 32.73 9.18 13.15 16.26 21.21 17.82 $1,208,595.39
2018 -1.66 -7.00 -1.76 -17.63 -1.61 -8.49 -11.18 -5.21 -6.23 $1,133,263.64
2019 27.25 17.47 17.98 24.67 14.12 22.82 26.10 30.67 22.12 $1,383,941.56
2020 29.85 24.87 25.03 11.69 18.15 11.28 13.58 21.03 20.00 $1,660,757.55
2021 13.37 6.56 -4.00 10.14 -4.60 26.60 24.71 25.67 11.03 $1,843,880.98
2022 -18.26 -31.68 -0.63 -21.24 -31.24 -16.19 -13.14 -19.51 -19.34 $1,487,237.52
2023 9.16 0.79 12.84 13.01 2.77 16.07 16.42 26.05 11.86 $1,663,631.33
CAGR                 10.13  

 

 

 

 

 














































 



Key statistics: 1971-2023

Annualized Return (CAGR) 10.13%
Best Yearly Gain (1979) 30.12%
Worst Yearly Loss (2022) -19.34%

 

Annualized Returns per decade

   1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
    18.72 -4.79 3.69 18.91   20.00 
  14.68 -5.80 21.28 -1.28 8.88 11.03
19.53 26.47 5.34 1.45 12.82 -19.34
  1.46 9.90 17.09 25.18 9.58 11.86
  -1.45 1.25 -1.93 13.84 11.03  
  19.28 29.11 24.43 11.19 -1.76  
16.38 23.29 7.98 12.79 10.22  
  3.74 5.83 11.46 9.96 17.82  
  11.42 11.75 10.86 -9.92 -6.22  
  30.12 17.50 9.23 14.92 22.12  
CAGR 12.39 13.29 9.74 7.77 10.01 4.71 

 

35 years (1989 - 2023) 30 years (1994 - 2023) 25 years (1999 - 2023) 20 years (2004 - 2023) 15 years (2009 - 2023) 10 years (2014 - 2023)

1989 17.50
1990 -4.79
1991 21.28
1992 5.34
1993 17.09
1994 -1.93
1995 24.43
1996 7.98
1997 11.46
1998 10.86
1999 9.23
2000 3.69
2001 -1.28
2002 1.45
2003 25.18
2004 13.84
2005 11.19
2006 12.79
2007 9.96
2008 -9.92
2009 14.92
2010 18.91
2011 8.88
2012 12.82
2013 9.58
2014 11.03
2015 -1.76
2016 10.22
2017 17.82
2018 -6.22
2019 22.12
2020 20.00
2021 11.03
2022 -19.34
2023 11.86
CAGR 8.88
1994 -1.93
1995 24.43
1996 7.98
1997 11.46
1998 10.86
1999 9.23
2000 3.69
2001 -1.28
2002 1.45
2003 25.18
2004 13.84
2005 11.19
2006 12.79
2007 9.96
2008 -9.92
2009 14.92
2010 18.91
2011 8.88
2012 12.82
2013 9.58
2014 11.03
2015 -1.76
2016 10.22
2017 17.82
2018 -6.22
2019 22.12
2020 20.00
2021 11.03
2022 -19.34
2023 11.86
CAGR 8.55


1999 9.23
2000 3.69
2001 -1.28
2002 1.45
2003 25.18
2004 13.84
2005 11.19
2006 12.79
2007 9.96
2008 -9.92
2009 14.92
2010 18.91
2011 8.88
2012 12.82
2013 9.58
2014 11.03
2015 -1.76
2016 10.22
2017 17.82
2018 -6.22
2019 22.12
2020 20.00
2021 11.03
2022 -19.34
2023 11.86
CAGR 8.22


2004 13.84
2005 11.19
2006 12.79
2007 9.96
2008 -9.92
2009 14.92
2010 18.91
2011 8.88
2012 12.82
2013 9.58
2014 11.03
2015 -1.76
2016 10.22
2017 17.82
2018 -6.22
2019 22.12
2020 20.00
2021 11.03
2022 -19.34
2023 11.86
CAGR 8.46



2009 14.92
2010 18.91
2011 8.88
2012 12.82
2013 9.58
2014 11.03
2015 -1.76
2016 10.22
2017 17.82
2018 -6.22
2019 22.12
2020 20.00
2021 11.03
2022 -19.34
2023 11.86
CAGR 8.89
2014 11.03
2015 -1.76
2016 10.22
2017 17.82
2018 -6.22
2019 22.12
2020 20.00
2021 11.03
2022 -19.34
2023 11.86
CAGR 6.90

 

5 years (2019 - 2023), 7.95% Annualized Return
 
 

The linear graph below shows the growth rate of $10,000 starting in 1971.

 

 

Other historical charts

20 year performance of the major asset classes (Stocks, Long-Term Bonds, Gold)

 

 

 

Data Sources
The yearly returns of the 8 funds were used since their inception.  Prior to that, similar mutual fund data was used to backtest to 1971.  Below are the URLs of all the data sources.

Total Stock Market Index  
2002-present Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=VTI&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1993-2001 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsmx/performance 
1977-1992 Vangaurd 500 Index (VFINX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfinx/performance
1971-1976 S&P 500 Total Annual Returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
Small-Cap Index  
2001-present iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IJR&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1974-2002 Vanguard Small Cap Index (NAESX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/naesx/performance 
1971-1973 T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/otcfx/performance 
   
Mid-Cap Index  
2001-present iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (IJH) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IJH&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1999-2000 Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Investor Shares (VIMSX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vimsx/performance
1972-1998 US Mid-Cap; Professor Kenneth French's Research Data https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
1971 S&P 500 Total Annual Returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
   
International Sm-Cap Index  
2008-present iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap (SCZ) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=SCZ&region=usa&culture=en-USA
1995-2007 DFA International Small Cap Value I (DISVX)  https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/disvx/performance
1971-1994 EAFE Annual Returns http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/MSCI_EAFE_index
   
LT Treasuries Index  
2003-present iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond (TLT) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=TLT&region=usa&culture=en-USA
1987-2002 Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VUSTX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vustx/performance 
1972-1986 Long Term Govt Bond - VUSTX from Simba backtesting spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 
1971 Long Term Govt Bond - 10-year T.Bond http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html 
LT TIPS Index  
2010-present PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index (LTPZ) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=LTPZ&region=usa&culture=en-USA
1971-2009 Long-Term Treasury Bond index (TLT), see above
   
Momentum Stocks Index  
2013-present iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor (MTUM) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=MTUM&region=usa&culture=en-USA
1971-2012 Total Stock Market Index (VTI), see above
   
Gold  
2006-present iShares Gold Trust (IAU) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IAU&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
2005 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=GLD&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA 
1972-2004 Gold Fixing Price in London Bullion Market https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com 
1971 Gold Price http://onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp 
   
Benchmarks  
1971-1976 S&P500 Total Annual Returns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
1977-1993 Vanguard S&P500 Index (VFINX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfinx/performance
1994-present SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=SPY&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
1971-present Vanguard Wellington 60/40 stock/bond balanced fund (VWELX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vwelx/performance
1971-present Vanguard Wellesley 40/60 stock/bond balanced fund (VWINX) https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vwinx/performance
1971-present Permanent Portfolio = 25% SHY, 25% IAU, 25% VTI, 25% TLT
   

Recommended Reading
The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy 
Permanent Portfolio Wiki 
This Is Why You Are Still Diversifying Wrong
Portfolios Are Stronger With Gold Than Without It
Long-Term Bonds And Gold As Portfolio Diversifiers
The Dividend Income Illusion
Forgetful Investors Performed The Best
How Small-Cap International Stocks Help Your Portfolio In Big Ways
StockCharts.com - Historical Chart Gallery of Market Indexes 
Vangaurd Portfolio Allocation Models - Historical Returns  

Disclaimer
Do your own research.  The information on this website is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security.  It's strictly educational and is not to be construed as any kind of investment advice.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

-A.D.

Webpage last updated January 3, 2024.
Email: webmaster@tightwadweb.com